Farmers are working harder than ever to grow food, but the math keeps changing. Temperatures are rising faster than crops can keep up, and adaptation isn't closing the gap.

What's happening?

Carbon Brief reported on how a global study published in Nature looked at six staple crops — cassava, maize, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat — across more than 12,600 regions.

Even after accounting for irrigation, planting shifts, and income growth, yields were projected to fall over 11% by 2098 under moderate warming.

The study warns, "in the absence of adaptation … agricultural outcomes would be materially worse."

Farmers are adjusting their practices, but it's not enough.

"That adaptation is partially protective — not fully protective," lead author Andrew Hultgren said. In a summary on the Stanford website, he added, "Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture."

Why it matters

This isn't just about crops — it's about people. The researchers estimated that for every 1 degree Celsius rise, global food output drops by about 120 calories per person per day. "If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," senior author Solomon Hsiang said.

In poor regions, missed harvests can tip communities into crisis. Even in wealthy countries, farms built for yields — not resilience — struggle when heat affects soil, water, and growing cycles. Prices climb. Farmers get squeezed. Meals get smaller.

We've seen other examples of this, from Indigenous growers working to preserve crop diversity to Brazilian citrus farmers shifting soil practices to deal with worsening droughts.

What's being done — and how you can help

Communities are acting. In India, weather alert tools help farmers avoid planting during dangerous heat. In parts of Africa, growers are turning to heat-tolerant crop varieties. In Brazil, regenerative soil practices are keeping fruit trees alive through harsh dry seasons.

What is the biggest reason you don't grow food at home? Not enough time ⏳ Not enough space 🤏 It seems too hard 😬 I have a garden already 😎 Click your choice to see results and speak your mind.

You can help too. Wasting less food and buying local supports the farmers making these changes. Pushing for policies that fund resilient seeds, better irrigation, and crop insurance can help stabilize food systems under pressure. For more suggestions, explore critical climate issues.

Adaptation can't fix everything, but it can keep more plates full.

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