An already active wildfire season could jump to a new level, according to experts. Several thousand firefighters are battling blazes, and the long-range outlook suggests those in the West will be kept busy for at least the next few months.
It's been another difficult stretch for wildland firefighters in the Western United States and Alaska. More than 1.7 million people across Colorado, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, and Alaska were under red flag warnings during the middle of the week. The Storm Prediction Center outlined four Western states containing over half a million people in critical fire weather conditions.
This active week has stretched firefighting resources and personnel thin.
"Significant wildland fire activity has increased across multiple geographic areas," the National Interagency Fire Center stated. "As more resources are committed, competition is increasing for all nationally shared resource types." More than 12,000 firefighters and support personnel were working Tuesday to contain 35 large uncontained fires across the country.
The NIFC tracks wildfires and keeps a tally of the blazes throughout the year. There have been nearly 42,000 wildfires so far in 2025. That is the highest number year-to-date of the past 11 years and more than 7,000 fires above the 2015-24 average.
Wildfires have charred over 3.4 million acres through the first five days of August. Early this month, the Dragon Bravo Fire in Arizona reached "megafire" status to become the largest wildfire of the year in the country.
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Wildfires in the West are being fueled by a growing and intensifying drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions have expanded in every category. Roughly two-thirds of the region is experiencing at least moderate drought, including all of Utah, 95% of Arizona, 58% of Nevada, nearly half of Wyoming, and 44% of Colorado.
The latest National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the National Interagency Coordination Center mentions several spots that might be especially active for wildfires late this summer and during fall. The forecast considers drought conditions and also projections for future precipitation.
"Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for most of the Northwest, California, northern Nevada, southwest Idaho, and the southern Idaho Panhandle through September," the NICC cautions. "Above normal potential is forecast for much of eastern Nevada, Utah, northern Arizona, northwest Colorado, western Wyoming, central Oklahoma, and North Texas in August before returning to normal in September."
The NICC outlook also expects above-normal significant fire potential to continue into August in much of the Great Basin. An inconsistent monsoon means Northern Arizona and the Four Corners area will be especially at risk during the final month of meteorological summer.
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The NICC is also concerned about Hawai'i. "Based on the weather projections and current state of the fuels, above normal significant fire potential is projected for August through October across the leeward sides of the islands," the NIFC warns.
Heat-trapping gases are acting like atmospheric steroids, supercharging extreme weather events.
A 2016 study found the warming world intensified the drying of vegetation and doubled the number of large wildfires in the Western U.S. between 1984 and 2015. A separate NOAA-backed 2021 study identified the overheating planet as the leading factor behind the increasing frequency of fire weather in the West.
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