A growing crisis in Turkmenistan could soon trigger devastating consequences far beyond its borders.

The country's deepening water shortage — driven by rising global temperatures, outdated infrastructure, and regional competition — is no longer just a local issue.

According to Atlantic Council, as Turkmenistan's reservoirs shrink and tensions rise with neighboring countries, experts warn this crisis could unleash serious economic, humanitarian, and political fallout across Central Asia.

What's happening?

Turkmenistan faces some of the highest water stress in Central Asia, largely due to inefficient infrastructure and poor management. Much of its water system dates back to the Soviet era, with open canals that lose up to 60% of their water to evaporation and seepage.

Agriculture uses about 94% of the nation's water — mostly for cotton, a crop that is poorly suited to the region's dry climate.

External pressures are also mounting. Around 90% of Turkmenistan's water comes from the Amu Darya river, which flows through neighboring countries. Afghanistan's construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal upstream threatens to reduce this crucial supply.

Without strong water-sharing agreements, the project risks sparking cross-border tensions. Meanwhile, increasing global temperatures are exacerbating droughts more rapidly than the global average, leading to accelerated water losses.

Why is the water crisis concerning?

This crisis is already hitting Turkmen families hard. Food insecurity is rising: nearly 12% of the population struggles to access enough to eat, according to World Food Security Outlook data shared by Progres, and many face soaring grocery prices as crops fail and farming declines.

Frequent water shortages in cities like Ashgabat increases the risk of dehydration and poor sanitation.

This is more than an environmental concern — it's an urgent issue of food access and affordability. As farms falter and food prices rise, more people are pushed toward poverty, making daily life harder for already vulnerable communities.

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In the background, worsening dust and salt storms from dried-out farmland and shrinking rivers are damaging both health and agriculture.

Turkmenistan's natural gas industry, which supplies nearly 90% of the country's exports — per Asian Development Outlook figures shared by Atlantic Council — also faces risks since gas production depends heavily on water. Left unchecked, this crisis could slow progress toward a safer, more stable future.

What's being done about Turkmenistan's water crisis?

Experts are calling for urgent international cooperation. The U.S. and the EU could help lead diplomatic efforts to secure water-sharing agreements among Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and other neighboring countries.

Solutions include investing in efficient irrigation systems, switching to drought-resistant crops, and funding community-based water conservation programs.

Without swift action, this crisis could spread well beyond Turkmenistan's borders — threatening food security, livelihoods, and regional stability.

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