In 2024, the MIT Climate Portal estimated that "by the year 2300 … we could plausibly see a meter or more of sea level rise; in the worst case, the seas could rise a staggering 10 meters (33 feet) or more." According to a recent study from researchers with the Union of Concerned Scientists, nearly one to two of those feet could be attributed to past pollution — heat-trapping gases generated up through 2020 by major fossil fuel and cement producers.
What's happening?
Scientists working in the United States, Austria, and Australia wanted to look at how pollution already generated by the Carbon Majors — the world's largest producers of fossil fuel and cement — has not only contributed to sea level rise so far but how it might continue to contribute to that rise in the long term. Their study, published in Environmental Research Letters, has projected that these past emissions will result in an additional one to two feet of sea level rise over the next 275 years.
"We find that emissions traced to these industrial actors have contributed 37%-58% to present day surface air temperature rise and 24%-37% to the observed global mean sea level rise to date," the study's co-authors wrote. "Critically, these emissions through 2020 are expected to contribute an additional 0.26–0.55 m of global sea level rise through 2300."
These increases are expected to come even if we can drastically reduce carbon pollution now.
That's because, as lead author and former UCS fellow Shaina Sadai explained in a post for the nonprofit, even if emissions are cut to zero, "many complex systems on Earth will continue to respond to the heat already trapped. So, even in a future scenario where the world achieves the stabilization of air temperatures, the Earth's oceans and cryosphere (frozen regions like Antarctica) will continue to adjust."
Sea level rise is expected to be a part of those ongoing changes. But that doesn't mean we should just give up.
Why is this study important?
Island and coastal communities will continue to be disproportionately affected by global sea level rise as it persists over centuries.
Delta Merner, associate director of the Science Hub for Climate Litigation at the UCS and a co-author of the paper, said in a statement that those impacts will include "infrastructure damage, habitat loss, saltwater intrusion, increased flooding, economic burdens and forced displacements."
This new study has illustrated the significance of reducing carbon pollution with urgency, showing that every bit produced now will have lasting consequences.
"Every delay in phasing out fossil fuels will burden future generations who need to adapt to rising seas and recover from loss and damage due to sea level impacts," Sadai warned in another UCS post.
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Definitely 👍 What can be done?
This research hasn't projected the generational effects of past pollution in order to spur only individual action or even systemic change — although those are certainly important.
By attempting to quantify the long-term impacts of the largest pollution producers, the co-authors also aim to hold the Carbon Majors accountable — perhaps so they can be expected to help address the problems their past emissions have already created as well as the damage they will continue to cause.
"This study underscores that the past actions of fossil fuel and cement producers will have consequences long into the future," the co-authors wrote in their conclusion. "Future climate action should consider corporate accountability measures to prevent the continuation of practices that exacerbate climate change, and to mitigate the intergenerational harm associated with these impacts."
We can use our voices to raise awareness about the consequences of our overheating planet. Learning about critical climate issues and then spreading the word by talking about them with friends and family is key. Now is also a vital time to support policymakers looking to hold major polluters meaningfully accountable for reducing emissions as well as funding solutions to the warming world's biggest challenges.
Jennifer Jacquet, a professor of environmental science and policy who was not involved in the study, told The New Lede, "As our world changes significantly for the worse as a result of climate change, I expect we will try to hold accountable those most responsible for those changes — both in terms of the carbon pollution but also the information pollution — in the courts and in the global market, where this kind of study will be relied upon."
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