Actual deaths resulting from the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires earlier this year may exceed the official count by hundreds, according to a new study published in JAMA.

While the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner pegged the number of deaths from the Palisades and Eaton Fires at 31, researchers comparing actual deaths to expected deaths estimated that the number could be as high as 440. 

What's happening?

The Palisades and Eaton Fires, which ravaged Los Angeles County early this year, were among the most destructive wildfires in California history. The Palisades Fire alone, which raged through the Pacific Palisades area, burned 23,000 acres and destroyed 7,000 structures, according to ABC7. 

Using a complex statistical analysis that compared the actual number of deaths in the area with the expected number of deaths, researchers gained a more complete picture of the toll the fires took.

"Excess deaths from wildfires include deaths directly related to the wildfire, along with partially attributable deaths (e.g., from lung or heart conditions exacerbated by smoke or stress) and indirect deaths (e.g., disruptions to health systems, mental health impacts)," the study authors wrote.

The analysis highlighted that the health impacts of wildfires extend far beyond the geographical boundaries of the fires themselves and can emerge long after the last flames have been extinguished. For example, cancer and other diseases caused by prolonged exposure to wildfire smoke can take years to develop. 

Excess-death calculations also help increase awareness that natural disasters can cause indirect deaths by, for example, cutting off hospital access during an unrelated medical emergency.

Given that only months have passed since the fires took place, it is possible that the 440 excess deaths represent an undercount. 

"There's certainly a long tail," said Andrew Stokes, one of the study authors, per The Washington Post. Stokes explained that first responders and others who were exposed to wildfire smoke and other contaminants could develop serious conditions years down the line.

Why do excess deaths from extreme weather events matter?

Counting excess deaths has become an important tool for researchers to capture a more complete picture of the devastation caused by natural disasters such as wildfires. 

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For example, analyses of excess deaths have been instrumental in describing the scale of harm caused by recent European heat waves and other extreme weather events.

For decades, scientists have warned that releasing heat-trapping pollution into the atmosphere has been causing global temperatures to rise, which increases the severity of extreme weather events such as wildfires.

The far-ranging impacts of these disasters can be difficult to measure, making excess death calculations a valuable tool for researchers, government officials, and the public alike. By better understanding the scale of these disasters and the indirect ways in which they impact lives, people can develop better strategies for mitigating these effects.

"I worry, for example, that when it comes to wildfires that have occurred elsewhere that we'll never know the full toll of those because the studies haven't been done and are difficult to do," Stokes said. "But here we've been able to show this discrepancy between the official toll versus what we believe to be the true toll, and the differences are quite staggering."

Disasters such as the Palisades and Eaton Fires devastate local communities and destroy homes, but their impacts can also be felt well beyond the disaster area. For example, when floods or fires ruin crops, it can cause food prices to increase everywhere.

Similarly, when insurance companies pay out billions of dollars to insured property owners, it makes insurance premiums go up well beyond the disaster area.

What's being done about excess deaths from extreme weather events?

Excess death studies can help to better explain the far-reaching impacts of severe weather events, allowing officials to develop better mitigation strategies.

However, in order to reverse the trend of rising global temperatures and the increased severity of extreme weather events, it is necessary to significantly reduce the amount of heat-trapping pollution entering the atmosphere. 

By taking steps such as driving an electric vehicle or installing solar panels on your home, you can reduce planet-warming pollution while also saving money on gas and electricity.

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