Government officials have confirmed a disappointing year for wheat production in Iraq, blaming the diminished yields on lower rainfall, Iraq News reported. The drop came on the heels of a record year for Iraqi wheat production in 2024. 

What's happening?

Wheat production in Iraq reached 5.12 million tons in 2025, well below the 5.4 tons achieved in 2024, said officials from the Ministry of Agriculture, per Iraq News. 

Limiting Iraq's ability to supplement the diminished rainfall, neighbors Turkey to the northwest and Iran to the east have built large dams that limit the flow of rivers into Iraq, according to Iraq News.  

For its water supply, arid Iraq depends heavily on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which receive runoff of melted snow and rainwater from nearby mountain ranges. 

"In recent years, a significant and unprecedented decline in water flow has been clear in both the Euphrates and the Tigris, and tributary rivers and lakes have dried up in several governorates," according to a 2024 piece in The Media Line.

The diminished flow from these key rivers, which have played a vital role in human civilization dating back to the days of Mesopotamia, has meant that Iraqi food production has become more dependent on the whims of highly variable annual rainfall patterns.  

While Iraq in 2025 celebrated its third consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency, the reduced harvest has threatened its ability to rely exclusively on domestic wheat production to meet the needs of its people. 

The diminished yields also highlight the vulnerability of global food supplies to changing weather patterns.  

Why is Iraqi wheat production important?

The situation in Iraq is just one example of how changing weather patterns and threatened water supplies will impact food production in the years and decades to come.

"Climate change and environmental degradation are widespread in Iraq, with reduced water availability and land degradation impacting the livelihoods of vulnerable communities across the country," wrote the UN's International Organization for Migration in a 2022 report.  

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The United Nations has named Iraq as the country fifth-most vulnerable to rising global temperatures due to "decreasing water and food availability and extreme temperatures," the report said.

Diminished water supplies are placing larger swathes of Iraqi land at risk of desertification. 

Desertified lands account for 6% of Iraq's total territory, with 55% of Iraqi territory at risk of desertification, according to The Media Line. 

As national water supplies are put increasingly at risk, more countries are likely to act as Turkey and Iran have, using massive dams to significantly reduce the flow of water to downriver countries like Iraq. 

This increases the likelihood of water conflicts, water scarcity, and widespread food shortages. 

What's being done about Iraqi wheat production?

For decades, the international community has attempted to address water conflicts between upriver and downriver nations through multinational and bilateral agreements. However, gaining the necessary buy-in and enforcing these agreements in practice has proven difficult. 

As rising global temperatures threaten limited water supplies, the conflicts among nations and other stakeholders, such as the agricultural industry, are likely to grow more intense, placing both food supplies and the farmers who rely on crops for their livelihoods at risk.

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