A new international study found that rising global temperatures made severe flooding that devastated West Tennessee and parts of the Central Mississippi River Valley in early April approximately 9% more intense than it would have been otherwise, as reported by the Tennessee Lookout.
What's happening?
From April 3 through April 6, torrential thunderstorms dumped record-breaking rainfall across eight states in the Mississippi River Valley, triggering catastrophic flooding that claimed at least 15 lives and caused widespread damage. The four-day deluge became the heaviest spring rainfall recorded in the region since 1950, according to the World Weather Attribution researchers who authored the study.
The analysis estimated that flood events have become about 40% more likely due to warming from dirty energy use and deforestation. Ben Clarke, a researcher at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy, noted that while some climate models showed mixed results, "similar events have become, we estimate, about 40% more likely, or, equivalently, about 9% more intense," per the Tennessee Lookout.
Why is the increase in rainfall important?
The increased intensity carries devastating real-world consequences. To illustrate the significance, Imperial College London's Friederike Otto pointed to Hurricane Helene research showing that an 11% wind speed increase doubled storm damage costs.
"If that hits you (the region) once in a lifetime, I mean ... that's one thing," Otto said, per the Tennessee Lookout. "But if that hits you twice, and it has the higher impact, that completely changes what ... extreme weather can mean for a community."
Such extreme rainfall events are expected roughly once per century. However, a study summary noted that "under current climate policies - which will lead to warming of approximately 2.6°C by 2100 - such extremes are expected to approximately double in likelihood again, and increase in intensity by about a further 7%."
What's being done about the increased storm intensity?
Early warnings from the National Weather Service saved lives, prompting evacuations of over 100 families in Obion County, Tennessee. However, data obtained by The Associated Press revealed that nearly half of National Weather Service forecast offices now suffer from critical understaffing, with vacancy rates reaching 20% or higher. Eight offices, including those in Arkansas and Kentucky, where the April severe weather hit hardest, operate with more than 35% of positions unfilled.
For homeowners seeking resilience against extreme weather, installing solar panels with battery systems provides backup power during extended grid outages while reducing energy costs to near zero. EnergySage offers a free service to help you compare quotes from vetted local installers, potentially saving up to $10,000 on installation.
Communities can also prepare by supporting enhanced flood warning systems and advocating for policies that address increasing global temperatures.
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