A new survey of glacial lakes in the Himalayas revealed that over a third are expanding as the permafrost melts at an alarming rate, potentially putting millions at risk of devastating floods. 

What's happening?

The Hindu reported that the Central Water Commission conducted a report on 100 glacial lakes 10 hectares (24.7 acres) or larger. It found that 34 of the lakes are showing an "increasing trend" in water spread area. The lakes created by melting glaciers pose a significant risk to the communities that live downstream. If they expand too quickly, they will burst from their confines and cause severe flooding.

Why are expanding glacial lakes such a concern?

The planet-heating pollution caused by dirty energy sources is driving extreme weather events and causing glaciers to melt rapidly worldwide. The Himalayas are home to hundreds of glacial lakes that provide a critical source of freshwater for a nation that has long struggled with droughts.

The area contains the third-largest ice deposit in the world, which the Indian Space Research Organization describes as the "Third Pole." With limited capacity, the most significant risk associated with expanding lakes is the potential for a glacial lake outburst flood to occur.

The dire consequences of a GLOF were observed in October 2023. A breach in the South Lhonak Lake caused a wave of floods that claimed 55 lives and destroyed a 1,200-megawatt hydroelectric dam. As Carbon Brief reported, a ridge of frozen rock collapsed into the lake, setting off a wave 20 meters high that carried half of the lake's water supply downstream with devastating effect.

A December 2024 GLOF risk analysis found that 10% of the land downstream of the lakes, home to over 2 million people, could be at risk, per Eos. Complicating matters is the uncertainty of where released water will ultimately go, as it is not always apparent from satellite images alone. 

What's being done about the risk of GLOFs?

The Central Water Commission's findings will be used to inform a National GLOF Risk Mitigation Program with a budget equivalent to $1.5 billion. A combination of raising awareness and establishing infrastructure for safely draining lakes, along with implementing early-warning systems, will help manage the issues in the short term.

In the long term, India needs to accelerate its adoption of renewable energy. It has made significant strides forward recently, but it still has a long way to go.

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