Despite a sluggish start to the Atlantic hurricane season, predictions point to above-average activity, meaning coastal communities and their insurers can't afford complacency.

What's happening?

There was a consensus among forecasters that this year would be a busy Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put the probability at 60% for an above-average year. Colorado State University's forecast supports this, estimating 17 named storms versus the average of 14.4.

One of the culprits for the quiet start to the season could be the large plumes of dry, dusty air wafting westward off of Africa that can suppress storm formation. Rounds of dust from the Saharan Air Layer have already arrived early in this year's Atlantic hurricane season. 

Meteorologists also point toward this year's "Atlantic Niña" as another factor for the lack of tropical cyclone activity so far.

"Atlantic Niña is the cold phase of a natural climate pattern we call the Atlantic zonal mode. (Zonal means 'along lines of latitude.')," according to NOAA. "This pattern, just like ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), swings between cold and warm phases every few years."

"Despite recent quiet periods and a slow start, hurricane risks remain elevated," said Laura Grimm, NOAA's acting administrator, per Insurance Business. "Coastal and inland areas alike need to stay vigilant."

Why is the lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic important?

Even though it might be quiet now, tropical activity in the Atlantic could escalate quickly. Our overheating planet is supercharging many extreme weather events. A recent study found that one natural buffer that tends to put the brakes on tropical cyclone development in the wake of tropical cyclones isn't as effective as it used to be. 

Before we let our guard down because of a lack of activity so far this season, just remember what happened only last year. Colorado State University classified the 2024 hurricane season as "hyperactive," with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 162 — above NOAA's 159.6 threshold for that label. NOAA uses ACE to gauge total tropical storm activity, with the metric heavily influenced by a storm's wind strength and duration. 

Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, found that every one of the 11 Atlantic hurricanes last year was intensified by our warming world.

What's being done about our overheating planet's influence on tropical cyclones?

The most notorious storm that struck the U.S. last year was Hurricane Helene, the deadliest hurricane to hit the country's mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. World Weather Attribution researchers concluded our warming world was "a key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities."

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