Scientists have observed an encouraging trend in growth in the Antarctic Ice Sheet but remain cautious about the climate's future.
A study published in Science China Earth Sciences found that the AIS had a record-breaking gain in mass between 2021 and 2023, most likely due to a pattern of unusual precipitation, per a report from KTVU.
"[The study] found that between 2011 and 2020, the AIS was losing ice at a rate of 142 gigatons per year," the outlet stated. "But between 2021 and 2023, the trend reversed, with the ice sheet gaining approximately 108 gigatons per year — a historic turnaround."
According to the KTVU report, the most notable gains for the AIS were in the East Antarctica's Wilkes Land and Queen Mary Land regions, including the Totten, Denman, Moscow University, and Vincennes Bay glacier basins, which had been losing mass at an accelerating rate from 2011 to 2020 but appear to now have at least partially recovered.
That growth also helped temporarily offset rising global sea levels by 0.3 millimeters per year during that two-year span.
The AIS holds 90% of the freshwater on the planet, and if it was to melt, it would increase sea levels around the world — devastating coastlines, displacing people, and causing untold environmental alterations, according to the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition.
While the news about the AIS gains is positive, KTVU explained that scientists stressed that the climate crisis is far from over and that the gains could likely be attributed to unusual precipitation patterns, something that is also a sign of rising temperatures. As the EPA explained, warmer oceans increase the amount of water that evaporates into the air, which leads to more intense rain and snowfall when the moisture-laden air converges with a storm system.
In May 2025, scientists warned that current projections may underestimate the impact of subglacial water, which forms when the base of the ice sheet melts due to either ice movement or geothermal heat from bedrock. They predicted the effects of subglacial water could contribute 2.2 meters (about 7.2 feet) to sea-level rise by 2300.
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