As recovery efforts following devastating flash floods in Texas continued, with a death toll the Associated Press is now reporting to be tragically over 100, Houston-based meteorologist Travis Herzog used Facebook to address a common question: "How could this happen?"
What's happening?
At 1:14 a.m. on Friday, July 4, a National Weather Service flash flood warning marked "considerable" was issued for Bandera and Kerr counties, per ABC News.
NWS guidelines advise using the "considerable" flash flooding tag "rarely," solely when flooding is deemed "capable of unusual severity or impact is imminent or ongoing," and when "urgent action is needed to protect life and property."
Alerts were upgraded at 3:35 a.m. and 4:03 a.m., the latter warning of a "particularly dangerous situation" and urging residents to get to higher ground immediately.
KTRK-TV Meteorologist Travis Herzog said in his Facebook post that he was "born and raised" in Texas Hill Country, the term he used for the area affected by the deadly flash floods, and he noted that floods have "always been a part of life" for residents.
Herzog explained broadly causative "naturally-occurring rainstorms that stall out are infrequent but not unprecedented" for the area, leading into what is a hallmark of extreme weather.
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Why is it important to understand extreme weather?
As Herzog observed, the underlying rainfall and flooding were common for the region.
What was new was their severity, strength, and sudden onset. As temperatures rise and oceans heat, atmospheric changes have a compounding effect on extreme weather, increasing its severity, its frequency, and the deadly risks it poses.
Herzog described the relationship between higher-than-average temperatures and the deadly Texas floods as "pretty simple" in terms of physics.
"Warmer oceans release more moisture into the atmosphere, and warmer air also holds more moisture. This enhances rainfall amounts above and beyond what would happen in a cooler world with cooler oceans," he explained.
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Meteorologists in the United States openly fretted after abrupt, drastic cuts hit the NWS, NOAA, and FEMA as hurricane season began, and Herzog weighed in on that issue.
"It certainly didn't help the situation that the Austin/San Antonio NWS weather forecast office is understaffed by 22% and without a Warning Coordination Meteorologist, but I see no evidence yet that it hurt the situation either with what I know," he said.
What's being done about the Texas flooding?
On Monday, July 7, rescuers continued their search for those still missing in the wake of the flooding, with at least 104 confirmed dead and at least 11 still missing.
Much of the region remained under an "extended flood watch," with several inches of rain expected that night.
In light of the horrific scope of the tragedy in Texas, GoFundMe compiled a verified list of campaigns for those affected by the incident. TCD also published a wider list of organizations working to help, such as the Kerr County Relief Fund.
World Central Kitchen was among the first on the scene to assist victims of the Texas flash floods, and the organization is accepting donations to support its work.
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