The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is upon us, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting what it's calling another year of "above-normal hurricane activity." The director of the National Weather Service says it's time to prepare.
What's happening?
NOAA officials say a combination of factors — including a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation, above-average ocean temperatures, and weak wind shear — is set to fuel the 60% chance that we'll see an "above-normal" Atlantic hurricane season, according to CBS News.
The outlet reported that forecasters may have reason to be even more confident in their predictions this year. A planned upgrade to NOAA's modeling is expected to boost the accuracy of tracking tropical systems and predicting their intensity by around 5%.
To improve preparedness and response, NOAA has also expanded its Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from a two-week to a three-week forecast window, the agency said, providing earlier warnings of possible tropical cyclone activity.
"In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," said NWS director Ken Graham in a statement, per CBS. "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."
Why is a forecast for an "above-normal" hurricane season concerning?
The agency is forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms (compared to an average of around 14) and six to 10 hurricanes (compared to the average of seven).
CBS cited Colorado State University as another highly regarded source of hurricane predictions. The university's team concurs that the season will be a busy one, estimating a total of 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes.
Even if the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season defies all these expectations and falls short of average, storm experts are quick to their refrain: "It only takes one." And we don't have to think far back at all to find an example of just how destructive a hurricane can be.
Hurricane Helene struck the U.S. in late September last year. After the initial damage it inflicted on the Gulf Coast, the storm surged north, bringing strong winds to the Southeast and wringing out historic rainfalls in North Carolina. The storm killed at least 250 people in the U.S., becoming the deadliest hurricane to hit the country's mainland since Katrina in 2005. It also caused financial devastation for many families and municipalities.
What's being done about the impact of our warming world on hurricanes?
Scientists have said that the overheating of our planet supercharged Helene, increasing the storm's rainfall by 10% and wind strength by 11%. An analysis of the 2024 hurricane season conducted by Climate Central found that "human-caused global warming" contributed to every named storm last year.
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Move somewhere else 🌎 Angela Colbert at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory didn't disagree with this thinking in a 2022 post. "Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall," Colbert wrote, "and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas."
Ditching dirty energy sources in favor of clean, renewable options can help cool down our planet and mitigate its effects, like extreme weather events and rising sea levels. A study by researchers at Cornell University has suggested that repurposing only 3.2% of U.S. cropland, currently used to grow corn for ethanol, could result in a more than threefold increase in solar power output nationwide.
Learning more about critical climate issues, especially together in affinity groups with the potential for local action, can help normalize the adoption of renewables and facilitate the pro-environment policies that can make scaled-up transition more realizable.
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