Officials reveal troubling new water outlook for 27 million residents: 'Periods of extremely dry conditions'

California has long struggled with water scarcity issues, now increasingly exacerbated by the changing climate. With 2025 predicted to be a particularly dry year, fears of water shortages have been growing. However, a late-March announcement from the Department of Water Resources has helped alleviate some of those fears for now.

California's DWR is a government agency responsible for protecting and managing water resources in the state. That includes the State Water Project, a system that supplies water to 27 million residents, 750,000 acres of farmland, and countless businesses, according to the Carmichael Times, a local outlet.

Each year, the DWR forecasts the percent of water supply it anticipates the SWP — "a system of reservoirs, canals, and pumping plants" — will be able to provide. As the DWR explains, when the SWP falls short for those relying on it, methods such as "water transfers between willing sellers and willing buyers can help stretch California's water supplies in dry times." Utilizing groundwater banking, drawing on local water sources, and conserving water are also used.

In December, the initial SWP allocation forecast was an abysmal 5%. This was based on the state's current reservoir storage and forecasted precipitation.

While a significant drought did hit the region in early 2025, the state is now largely drought-free, and the water allocation forecast has been looking up. It reached 35% by February, and by late March, the DWR announced another increase to 40% due to storms throughout the month.

While periodic droughts and water scarcity are not new to California — and while "allocations typically start low and then increase through the winter months," per the DWR — dry periods are certainly becoming larger issues as temperatures rise globally, shifting weather patterns. Warmer temperatures increase evaporation, reduce snowpack, and alter precipitation.

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This phenomenon led to the driest three-year stretch in California's recorded history between 2020 and 2022. It also led to some of the most devastating wildfires in state history.

The announcement from the DWR comes as a welcome relief to the millions of residents and business owners who rely on the SWP. It's also good news for the wildlife that similarly relies on access to water and water-dependent food sources.

At the very least, the projected water supply has matched last year's final water allocation, which is great, considering the initial 2024 allocation was double that of 2025. The hope is that the final water allocation for 2025 — which should arrive in May or June — will be even higher.

"As we near the end of the wet season, our focus shifts to snowpack runoff and whether temperatures allow for a slow melt so we can capture as much of that runoff as possible," DWR director Karla Nemeth told the Carmichael Times. "Despite periods of extremely dry conditions this season, water managers have been able to effectively capture, move and store water for use later this year while also maintaining flood protection."