Officials raise alarm as country's key crop forecast drops by over 1 million tons — here's what it means for global food prices

As drought conditions worsen across Argentina, the country's soybean crop has taken a significant hit. 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has cut its 2024/25 production forecast by 1 million metric tons (roughly 1.1 million tons), a revision that highlights the growing challenges that farmers face and the far-reaching effects that these challenges could have on global food prices and supply chains.

What's happening?

On April 11, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its soybean forecast by around 1 million metric tons from its previous estimate to 48.6 million metric tons (roughly 53.6 million tons). The revision is due to an ongoing drought, particularly in northeastern Argentina, where high temperatures and water shortages have reduced yields by 22%.

"High temperatures and the prolonged water deficit have caused heat and water stress, primarily affecting the NEA (northeastern Argentina)," the exchange said in its latest report. The northeast represents about 10% of the country's soybean acreage, or 1.86 million hectares (roughly 4.6 million acres).

The drought is also affecting corn, with yields expected to drop 40% in some areas. However, a larger-than-expected planted area has kept the national corn forecast steady at 49 million metric tons (roughly 54 million tons).

Why is this concerning?

Argentina is a major supplier of key agricultural products, including soybean oil, meal, and corn. A drop in production will likely affect global markets, driving up prices for meat, processed foods, and other products that rely on soy-based animal feed.

For farmers, this means lower incomes and greater uncertainty about the future. For consumers, it could result in higher grocery prices, adding to the financial pressure many are already facing. The drought is a stark reminder that rising global temperatures are not a distant issue — they are already disrupting food systems worldwide.

What's being done about it?

Farmers are adopting drought-resistant crops and advanced irrigation techniques to cope with the changing climate. There's also a push for climate-smart agricultural practices to build long-term resilience.

Consumers can help by supporting sustainable food systems, reducing food waste, and staying informed about the environmental impacts of their food choices. A collective effort to address climate change will help protect food supplies for everyone, both now and in the future.

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